Friday, May 20, 2005
Pa. has a flu plan - but it's top secret
I wonder if the plan is the "Go home to die, kiss your wife and kids good bye.".
- As public-health workers brace for an eventual new strain of influenza that could kill millions of people worldwide, a dispute has arisen whether government officials should divulge their plans. These are strategic blueprints that set up a management team, evaluate hospital capacity, and consider who would be vaccinated.
Top experts worry that an avian flu virus in Southeast Asia, or another strain, could lead to a pandemic. They fear that the nation has not adequately planned for anticipated shortages in vaccines, antiviral drugs, medical staff and even food.
In contrast to a typical flu season, during which about 36,000 people die in the United States, the toll from a pandemic could number in the hundreds of thousands.
Because of the threat, federal, state and local governments have been drawing up response plans. In August, the federal government released a draft of a national pandemic plan for public comment.
- But Pennsylvania officials say their pandemic plan includes sensitive details - such as phone numbers and vaccination storage sites - that could devastate response efforts if the information got into the wrong hands.
"We are walking on a knife's edge," said Adrian R. King Jr., director of the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. "We want to act in good faith to give information. At the same time, we have an obligation for operational security."
State officials are discussing the development of a "reader-friendly" version of the plan for the public, said Troy Thompson, a Pennsylvania Health Department spokesman.
- Estimated Impact of a Flu Pandemic
Trust for America's Health uses a U.S. Health and Human Services computer model to estimate the effects of a pandemic flu contracted by 35 percent of the U.S. population. The estimates include:
89,000 to 207,000 deaths.
314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations.
18 million to 42 million outpatient visits.
20 million to 47 million additional illnesses
$71.3 billion to $166.5 billion economic impact.
In Pennsylvania, there would be an estimated 12,686 deaths and 52,573 hospitalizations.
In New Jersey, there would be an estimated 7,924 deaths and 33,970 hospitalizations.
SOURCE: Trust for America's Health
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